The US Employment Really Improving?

 

(Carpe Diem ) The Monster Employment Index rose by ten points in February, as employers resumed hiring activity after January’s seasonal lull. The long-term growth rate turned positive, with the Index up 2% year-on-year, for the first time since December 2007 suggesting some improvement in the underlying demand for labor…

(News to Use) The BLS employment report surprised on the upside in February…  

[Also, take a look at] household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived. This survey is normally more volatile [but] much less impacted during episodes of severe weather conditions. As it turns out, the household survey showed an increase of 308,000 jobs in February, the second increase in a row.

As today’s Hot Chart shows, the 3-month moving average indicates that job creation has already resumed in the U.S., a development that we expect to see confirmed by the payroll survey as soon as next month. What’s more, it is extremely encouraging to see that the household survey showed two consecutive months of full-time job creation through February. As shown, this is the first such occurrence since the onset of the recession.

[Excellent counter arguments from Rosenberg, also via News to Use] The Household survey showed a decent 308,000 increase in February… [But] first agricultural and related employment surged 198k, which ranks as the fourth largest increase in 25 years. So, the same month that we endured one of the stormiest months, weather-wise, in recent memory, the farming community went out and hired a handful of corn planters. The rest of the Household survey was government related, therefore, what we see out of this survey was that private sector nonfarm workers actually fell 89,000 (and not weather affected).

… And, while the headline unemployment rate managed to stabilize at 9.7% compared with consensus views of a modest uptick, the more inclusive U6 measure, which takes into account the overall level of underemployment in the economy, rose to 16.8% from 16.5%.

One arcane statistic that still shows this to be an employers’ market, the “quit rate” — an old Greenspan favourite that illustrates worker confidence in the jobs outlook — dropped 5.7% from 6.1% and now stands at a five-month low. Perhaps it is because of this relentless large degree of slack in the labour market and the low level of worker security that we are seeing wage growth slow down as much as it has, even in the face of a statistical tentative recovery, with average weekly earnings down 0.2% MoM in February — the second decline in the past three months — and now just 100 basis points away from deflating outright on a year-over-year basis.